The children of the Islamic Republic
The Economist has a good snapshot of Iran’s changing demographics, and what this might mean politically:
Iran has a overwhelmingly youthful population. Some 60% of its 70m citizens are now under 30. This group did not experience the revolution directly. Nor did they suffer under the Shah’s rule that preceded it. They did not fight in Iran’s brutal and lengthy war with Iraq. They have grown up exclusively under Iran’s strange blend of theocracy and democracy and they are far from happy with it….
Many outsiders, who dislike the regime and wish to see it fall, hope that Iran’s disaffected youth could bring about its demise. But the anger that many young people share at the failures of their government is unlikely to topple it. Though they may chafe at its restraints, religion remains important to many young Iranians. By and large, they do not wish to see Iran become a secular country and few would describe themselves as atheists. But they would rather see Islam confined to their private lives and eliminated from the public sphere…
Like the founding fathers of the revolution, they resent fiercely any hint of Western meddling in Iranian affairs. They may be unhappy with their leaders and resent their rule, but they will rally round them in the face of outside attack.
In my own personal interactions with Iranian youth who have left the country to study, I have found them to lack the prejudice towards Baha’is that seems to be ingrained in older generations. Furthermore, judging from media reports from Iran, there appears to be a general shift in thought underway about the desirability of extending citizenship rights to all Iranians. I think we need to abandon any presumption that the Islamic Republic will spontaneously fail; far more likely is the gradual evolution of a system that is increasingly tolerant and tolerable for Iran’s citizens.
Afterthought: I realize that my last comment may have appeared to be shockingly complacent. What I mean is that those who are concerned about the future of Iran and the condition of Iranians have far more to gain by supporting movements for legal gains in the defense of human rights than by sitting on their hands and hoping for regime collapse.
