Mixed messages
A recent study by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago finds that global patterns of religious change are not easy to explain:
“With more modernization in general and with more education in particular, religious beliefs and behaviors across countries do tend to decline,” the report states, and then promptly warns that these correlations are “moderate” and “many are not statistically significant.” Conclusion? “The relationship is neither overwhelming nor uniform across countries.”
Modernization is, of course, linked to scientific knowledge and progress.
…But the report also points out that “the difference between them and those in nonscientific occupations is not especially large,” and in fact most of them remain religious, with large proportions believing in God, identifying with a religion, praying and attending services.
“In sum,” the report says, “the proposition that science leads people in general and scientists in particular away from religion is only weakly supported by the available evidence.”
What makes larger populations more susceptible to religious change? There are clearly social factors that incline people towards or away from religion. I think this is a fascinating area of research that continues to elude the tools of talented researchers.
My preferred (untested) theory is that there are temporal windows in history when younger generations are inclined to wholly abandoning tradition, without knowing what alternatives they want to embrace. The result, I think, is often a religious ferment. A threshold of conservatism is breached and people seek out alternative beliefs and patterns of community. To the extent that these ‘openings’ produce meaningful and sustainable alternatives, they may produce more widespread social transformation. But more often than not they are simply stillborn, and the past is partly reincarnated. And the cycle repeats with incremental changes.
